National Poll Results - June 20, 2017
The June 2017 round of Brown University’s Taubman Center / RABA Research Polls, the second in a series, finds that President Trump continues to enjoy significant support from his base, while being viewed as doing a poor job by a meaningful number of respondents. Trump’s numbers are similar to what our polling found in April. However, support for a GOP Congressional candidate on the generic ballot has decreased. In each of our surveyed geographies, with the exception of a Republican stronghold in Iowa, we have seen movement away from a generic GOP House candidate.
The volatility in the generic Congressional question has been significant. Our data shows a 6% shift in Kent County, Rhode Island from April, an 11% shift in our North Carolina and South Carolina counties, and a 5% shift in Chester County, PA. In Arapahoe County, CO, support for the generic Republican held steady at 34%, but the generic Democrat gained 2 percentage points -- bumping up to 53%.
Comparing our April surveys to our June polling, voters between aged 18 – 44 showed the biggest swing away from the generic Republican candidate.
- A 30% swing in favor of a generic Democratic candidate among this age group in Kent County, RI.
- A 27% swing in favor of a generic Democratic candidate among this age group in Chester County, PA.
- A 29% swing in favor of a generic Democratic candidate among this age group in our Iowa counties.
- A 52% swing in favor of a generic Democratic candidate among this age group in our North Carolina and South Carolina counties.
These surveys also demonstrated respondents’ view of Congress, across all counties, has declined since April. When asked, “Do you have confidence in Congress to act in the best interest of the country?” fewer than 1 in 5 respondents said yes.
In all surveys, we see clear majorities agreeing that the nation “has a moral responsibility to provide healthcare to all Americans.”
- In Kent County, RI, 67% of respondents agreed.
- In our North Carolina and South Carolina counties, 62% of respondents agreed.
- In Chester County, PA, 60% of respondents agreed.
- In Arapahoe County, CO, 59% of respondents agreed.
- In our Iowa counties, 55% of respondents agreed.
Support for getting rid of the Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare, has declined. Voters continue to demonstrate less support for the law when it is referred to as ObamaCare.
The polls, which can be found at www.rabaresearch.com, tested voters on attitudes toward Trump’s alleged ties to Russia, the human impact on climate change, support for school vouchers, attitudes towards the economy, and the White House’s proposed temporary travel ban.
Poll Comparison
Working class suburbs - represented by Kent County, RI (Obama/Trump)
Wealthy first ring suburbs - represented by Arapahoe County, CO (Obama/Clinton)
Rural Midwest - represented by four Iowa counties (Romney/Trump)
Diverse rural south - represented by four counties in North & South Carolina (Obama/Trump)
Upper middle class exurbs - represented by Chester County, PA (Romney/Clinton)
» View Poll Archive » Our Methodology
METHODOLOGY
Our surveys used random digit dialing (RDD) to respondents culled from a list of voters who have shown some history of voting. Surveys were conducted via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) over the course of several consecutive days. The raw response data was weighted to historical voter turnout quotas for age and gender to ensure proportional response. The overall margin of error (MOE) for each poll is approximately +/- 4% at a 95% confidence interval, with a larger MOE for split-sample questions.
