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Trump edges up in Iowa in new
Simpson College/RABA Research poll
Trump leads Clinton by 3 points, 44 percent to 41 percent
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(DES MOINES) – Donald Trump holds a slim 3-point lead in the latest Simpson College/RABA Research poll of likely voters in Iowa, 44 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 5 percent, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and independent candidate Evan McMullin are each at 2 percent. Six percent of those surveyed are still undecided.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Clinton by two points – 46% to 44%, with 10 percent still undecided.
The lead is a small expansion from the Simpson College/RABA Research poll conducted Sept. 6-8, where Trump held a one-point lead, 40 percent to 39 percent, but remains within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
“Donald Trump’s base is sticking with him, even after the recent tape revealing his lewd comments about women,” said Kedron Bardwell, chair of Simpson’s political science department. “His lead with non-college voters and men surpasses Clinton’s lead with college-educated voters and women. If GOP turnout holds up, those groups will be key to the party’s chances in Iowa.”
While Trump generally is viewed as struggling with young voters, the poll found that one-third of Iowa voters under age 30 are supporting Trump – and that number grows to 4 in 10 in the two-way race.
Clinton has a modest lead with women, younger voters, and college educated voters. Trump enjoys a 9-point lead among men, and a 13-point lead among Iowa voters without a college education.
“Iowa is again proving to be one of the closest states in the country,” said Republican Tim Albrecht, a RABA Research partner based in Des Moines. “This is a margin-of error race, right down to the wire. We could be in for a late night on Tuesday.”
The survey indicates that Iowans, who until 2014 had never elected a woman to the U.S. House or Senate, largely support the idea of a woman president, with 66% saying the country is ready, and 20% saying it is not. Among Republicans, however, more than 56% would not say definitively that the United States was ready for a woman president. College-educated voters are far more likely to say that America is ready for a woman president (60-point net) than those without a college education (32-point net).
Despite a national conversation about the possibility of the elections being “rigged,” 74 percent of Iowa voters have confidence in the fairness and accuracy of the Iowa contest. The only subgroup to have significant concerns with the election’s integrity seems to be voters under 30, with 1 in 4 saying they’re not confident that the results will be fair.
When respondents were asked whether the political parties represented their views better than a third party could, 64% of respondents agreed, while 23% believe neither party represents their views as well as a third party would. Notably, 41% of young voters said a third party would better represent their views than the Democrats or Republicans.
The statewide poll was taken Nov. 1 and 2, entirely after the latest revelations from the FBI concerning Hillary Clinton. 1,076 likely voters were contacted on landlines via IVR technology, with live calls to cell phones and additional cell phone-only households surveyed online. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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