Poll Archive

National Poll Results – April 19, 2017

Trump Coalition Looks Past Controversies, while Opposition is Intense, and GOP Congressional Ballot slumps below Trump Job Approval

New poll from the Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy at Brown University shows a deeply divided nation, continuing strength of Trump’s base, and sharp vulnerabilities for congressional Republicans

PROVIDENCE, RI — The first in a series of polls conducted by the Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy at Brown University’s Watson Institute underscores the partisanship that marks American politics, the solidity of President Donald Trump’s base, and a broad backlash against Congressional Republicans. The poll, conducted April 5-10, was fielded by RABA Research, a bi-partisan polling firm, in collaboration with Brown University.

The poll did a deep dive into five different kinds of geographies with different recent voting patterns – including two areas that voted for both Obama and Trump. In three of the five areas, Trump’s current approval ratings suggest that many voters who supported him in the election do not approve of his job performance. For example, Trump won the four counties Taubman polled in Iowa with between 62.1 and 70 percent of the vote. Today, however, only 47 percent of voters in those counties rate his job performance “good” or “excellent.” However, in all five of those Iowa counties, Trump ran ahead of generic Congressional Republican’s matched against generic Democrats.

“Republican candidates do not seem to be able to run away from the Trump agenda,” said Jim Morone, director for Brown’s Taubman Center. In 2016, most GOP candidates ran ahead of Trump’s performance in the general election. “Now, with Trump as president, Congressional Republicans face considerable headwinds in very different kinds of political settings.”

The poll also shows some voters souring on GOP plans to get rid of Obamacare. In the working class suburb of Kent County, RI, 49% of voters oppose dumping the Affordable Care Act, while only 36% support it. The upper middle class voters in Arapahoe County, CO (who voted for both Obama and Clinton) also oppose scrapping the ACA, while rural voters in the Midwest and the south continue to voice support for Republicans looking to repeal the ACA. In general, however, support for Trump outruns support for his policies in most policy areas. While Clinton’s America opposes efforts to defund Planned Parenthood, so does much of Trump’s – outside the South.

Support for other Trump priorities — including the building of a border wall with Mexico and a temporary travel ban placed on visitors from certain majority Muslim countries — remains strong across four of the five markets.

“Our deep drill down into different American settings shows a fiercely divided nation,” said Morone. Strong partisan differences appear both between districts and within them. For example, in the upper middle class exurb of Chester County, PA, which voted for Romney in 2012 then Clinton in 2016, Donald Trump’s approval rating exceeds his vote count. At the same time, an extraordinary 44% of voters in that county say they have personally backed the opposition to President Trump – by writing letters, going to meetings or contributing money. “So here’s a county,” concludes Morone, “where 49% of the population says Trump is doing an excellent or good job while 44% claim to be organizing against him!”

At the same time, the poll shows no systematic evidence of collapsing support for Donald Trump despite the many controversies that have surrounded his administration. Across the very different political settings, his approval rating very roughly reflects his November vote totals.

NOTE: The poll, which can be found at www.brown.edu/taubman-center, tested voters on trade and China, funding for Planned Parenthood, opioid abuse, and attitudes both about alleged Trump ties to Russia and allegations that President Obama wiretapped Trump Tower during the campaign.

The counties studied in the Taubman Poll are generally representative of certain types of counties—meaning that they have demographic and ideological similarities to other counties around the country. Learn more about the types of counties chosen:

Working class suburbs – represented by Kent County, RI (Obama/Trump)
Wealthy first ring suburbs – represented by Arapahoe County, CO (Obama/Clinton)
Rural Midwest – represented by four Iowa counties (Romney/Trump)
Diverse rural south – represented by four counties in North & South Carolina (Obama/Trump)
Upper middle class exurbs – represented by Chester County, PA (Romney/Clinton)

The poll measured attitudes among 2,812 voters and was conducted between April 5-10, 2017. It has a margin of error 4.2% across each geography.

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Iowa Poll Results – November 4, 2016

Contact: Brad Anderson (D), brad@rabaresearch.com; Tim Albrecht (R), tim@rabaresearch.com; Kedron Bardwell (Simpson), kedron.bardwell@simpson.edu

Trump edges up in Iowa in new
Simpson College/RABA Research poll

Trump leads Clinton by 3 points, 44 percent to 41 percent

» View the Full Poll

(DES MOINES) – Donald Trump holds a slim 3-point lead in the latest Simpson College/RABA Research poll of likely voters in Iowa, 44 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 5 percent, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and independent candidate Evan McMullin are each at 2 percent.  Six percent of those surveyed are still undecided.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Clinton by two points – 46% to 44%, with 10 percent still undecided.

The lead is a small expansion from the Simpson College/RABA Research poll conducted Sept. 6-8, where Trump held a one-point lead, 40 percent to 39 percent, but remains within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.

“Donald Trump’s base is sticking with him, even after the recent tape revealing his lewd comments about women,” said Kedron Bardwell, chair of Simpson’s political science department. “His lead with non-college voters and men surpasses Clinton’s lead with college-educated voters and women. If GOP turnout holds up, those groups will be key to the party’s chances in Iowa.”

While Trump generally is viewed as struggling with young voters, the poll found that one-third of Iowa voters under age 30 are supporting Trump – and that number grows to 4 in 10 in the two-way race.

Clinton has a modest lead with women, younger voters, and college educated voters.  Trump enjoys a 9-point lead among men, and a 13-point lead among Iowa voters without a college education.

“Iowa is again proving to be one of the closest states in the country,” said Republican Tim Albrecht, a RABA Research partner based in Des Moines. “This is a margin-of error race, right down to the wire.  We could be in for a late night on Tuesday.”

The survey indicates that Iowans, who until 2014 had never elected a woman to the U.S. House or Senate, largely support the idea of a woman president, with 66% saying the country is ready, and 20% saying it is not. Among Republicans, however, more than 56% would not say definitively that the United States was ready for a woman president.  College-educated voters are far more likely to say that America is ready for a woman president (60-point net) than those without a college education (32-point net).

Despite a national conversation about the possibility of the elections being “rigged,” 74 percent of Iowa voters have confidence in the fairness and accuracy of the Iowa contest.  The only subgroup to have significant concerns with the election’s integrity seems to be voters under 30, with 1 in 4 saying they’re not confident that the results will be fair.

When respondents were asked whether the political parties represented their views better than a third party could, 64% of respondents agreed, while 23% believe neither party represents their views as well as a third party would.  Notably, 41% of  young voters said a third party would better represent their views than the Democrats or Republicans.

The statewide poll was taken Nov. 1 and 2, entirely after the latest revelations from the FBI concerning Hillary Clinton. 1,076 likely voters were contacted on landlines via IVR technology, with live calls to cell phones and additional cell phone-only households surveyed online. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Millennial Voter Poll Results – October 14, 2016

Contact: Brad Anderson (D), brad@rabaresearch.com; Kim Alfano (R), kim@rabaresearch.com; Kedron Bardwell (Simpson), kedron.bardwell@simpson.edu

New Simpson College/RABA Research Poll Finds Clinton Support Among Millennials at Obama 2012 Level
Under-30 Voters Strongly Support Immigration Reform, Believe “White Privilege” is Pervasive, 30% Say Third Party > Ds or Rs
First Survey Written BY Millennials FOR Millennials
Gives Unique Insight on Youth Vote

» View the Full Poll

(Des Moines, IA) – Today, Simpson College (IA) and RABA Research released the results of a 3-day online survey of hard-to-reach Under-30 voters across the country.  The poll finds that among younger voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 23 points, 49% – 26%.  Libertarian Gary Johnson sits at 11%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 5%.  10 percent are still undecided.

Trump’s support among younger voters is less than that of Under-30 voters who are undecided or currently supporting a third party candidate.  Further, almost a third of Republican Millennials are supporting Clinton, Johnson, or are currently undecided.

“Despite media reports earlier this year of younger voters being wary of Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee currently enjoys a margin of support among these voters equal to Barack Obama’s final margin in 2012,” said Democratic RABA Partner Brad Anderson.  “Our survey finds that young people are not gravitating to third party alternatives, nor are they overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the Democratic Party.  Hillary Clinton’s debate discussion of issues important to younger voters – from immigration to civil rights – may have really broken through.  And Donald Trump’s latest string of outrageous comments may be motivating young voters more than ever to back the Democratic nominee.”

The survey finds a strong belief among young voters (58%) in the idea of “white privilege,” and deep support (60%) for immigration reform.  Younger voters are split on #BlackLivesMatter, with 43% having a favorable impression, and 36% with an unfavorable view.  In the poll, 57% of Under-30 voters say they are optimistic about their economic prospects.

“We find that in contrast to a downbeat campaign, young voters of both parties are overwhelmingly optimistic about their economic prospects,” said Professor Kedron Bardwell, chair of Simpson’s political science department. “What draws Millennials strongly toward Hillary Clinton and away from Donald Trump, however, is not economics but young voters’ very progressive views on racial equality and immigration.”

The Simpson/RABA survey is the first of its kind – fielding questions written by Millennials studying at Simpson College, and capturing young voters’ responses online rather than by increasingly fruitless attempts to reach them with traditional telephone interviews.

“It would appear that despite Donald Trump’s efforts to appeal to disaffected voters in both parties, he has not garnered the support he had hoped for,” said Republican RABA Partner Kim Alfano. “This could be a function of his latest controversial comments, as well as Bernie Sander’s efforts to help Hillary Clinton.”

The survey of 1,202 voters aged 18 to 29 took place online between October 10th and 12th, and the results have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3%.

Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District Poll Results – September 14, 2016

Contact: Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com; Kedron Bardwell, kedron.bardwell@simpson.edu

New Simpson/RABA poll shows Congressman David Young with double-digit lead over Jim Mowrer in race for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District

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(DES MOINES) – Simpson College and RABA Research released a new poll today showing incumbent Congressman David Young with a 15-point lead over his competitor Jim Mowrer, 50 percent to 35 percent.

Both candidates receive a similar majority of their party’s voters, with Young attracting 87 percent of Republicans and Mowrer 82 percent of Democrats. The big difference is among no party voters, where Young garners 52 percent of the vote to Mowrer’s 23 percent. 24 percent of independent voters remain undecided.

“The numbers show Young’s success in crafting a more moderate image that appeals to independents,” said Professor Kedron Bardwell, chair of the Simpson College political science department. “But Jim Mowrer just started advertising on TV, so he should get a boost in name recognition. We’ll see if he can capitalize on it, rally his party, and close the gap with swing voters.”

The poll is the third released this week, just days after Simpson College announced its partnership with RABA Research.

A Simpson/RABA poll released Monday showed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with a slim lead over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Yesterday’s poll showed Republican Chuck Grassley with a double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, Patty Judge.

“This remains a tight, competitive district,” said RABA partner Tim Albrecht, a Republican. “Young enjoys a competitive lead now, but expect both parties to open the advertising artillery as early voting begins in just under two weeks. With a full quarter of independents in the district undecided, they are a jump ball for either candidate to win over.”

The Simpson/RABA poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 among a random sample of 303 voters on landline and cellular phones, with supplemental cell phone-only households surveyed online. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

U.S. Senate Poll Results – September 13, 2016

Contact: Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com; Kedron Bardwell, kedron.bardwell@simpson.edu

New Simpson/RABA poll shows Grassley with double-digit lead over Patty Judge.

» View the Full Poll

(DES MOINES) – Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley has opened up a 13-point lead over Democrat Patty Judge, with Grassley garnering 50 percent of the vote while former Iowa Agriculture Secretary Judge is receiving 37 percent.

The release comes the day after a Simpson/RABA Research poll of Iowa voters showed Donald Trump with a slim, one-point lead over Hillary Clinton.

Grassley has found himself in a tougher-than-usual re-election race this year due to his refusal to hold hearings for President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, which prompted Judge to get into the race.

The Simpson/RABA poll shows room for Judge to grow. While Grassley has 90 percent of Republicans supporting him, Judge is only at 73 percent among Democrats.

“If Patty Judge can consolidate her party support in the coming weeks, this race will tighten,” said Professor Kedron Bardwell, chair of Simpson College’s political science department. “But knocking off any long-time incumbent senator is a difficult task.”

Grassley leads among self-identified independents by a margin of 49 percent to 33 percent.  Grassley receives 11 percent support from Democrats surveyed in the poll.

Among voters without a college degree, Grassley leads Judge by 22 points, while college graduates choose Grassley over Judge by just 7 points.

Male voters support Grassley by 21 points, while Judge trails Grassley with women voters by 8 points.

“Despite a healthy lead in the head-to-head, Chuck Grassley’s vote share is 50 percent – often a warning sign for longtime incumbents,” said RABA Research partner David Kochel, a Republican. “That said, he’s outpolling Donald Trump in every single category, and with two months to go, Grassley’s in solid position to win re-election.”

The Simpson/RABA poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 among a random sample of 1,054 voters on landline and cellular phones, with supplemental cell phone-only households surveyed online. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

Iowa Presidential Poll Results – September 12, 2016

Contact: Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com; Kedron Bardwell, kedron.bardwell@simpson.edu

New Simpson/RABA poll shows Trump with narrow lead over Hillary Clinton.
Trump’s lead falls within the poll’s +/-3% margin of error; holds steady when 3rd party candidates are added to the mix

» View the Full Poll

(DES MOINES) – In the first Simpson College/RABA poll released as a part of their recently-announced partnership, Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by a razor-thin margin, 43 percent to 42 percent in Iowa.

Trump’s and Clinton’s numbers are resilient even in a four-way race, where Trump garners 40 percent of the vote, followed by Clinton’s 39 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson attracts 10 percent of the vote while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 3 percent and 8 percent aren’t sure.

“This poll shows that both Trump and Clinton have a loyal, dug-in base of support showing little movement, even when Iowa voters are given an alternative candidate from which to choose,” said Professor Kedron Bardwell, chair of Simpson’s political science department. “The campaigns of both Trump and Clinton have even more reason to ratchet up their ground games to make sure the votes are there on election day.”

Iowa voters are not entirely settled with the top two choices, however. While 57 percent say they are voting “for” their candidates, 41 percent are turning out to vote “against” the other side, affirming a certain polarization among the electorate as a whole.

“As of now, both candidates have a very high floor when it comes to early support,” said RABA Research Partner Brad Anderson, a Des Moines Democrat. “If Democrats continue their historically effective turn-out-the-vote program, it could be enough to make the difference in what is shaping up to be an ultra-close race.”

True to form, Iowans’ sense of fairness is demonstrated in the poll, where 57 percent of respondents believe the third party candidates should have a spot on the debate stage this fall, when Clinton and Trump are scheduled to meet three times.

The poll is the first in a series of Simpson/RABA polls released this week. Tomorrow’s poll examines the U.S. Senate race in Iowa.

The Simpson/RABA poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 among a random sample of 1,054 voters on landline and cellular phones, with supplemental cell phone-only households surveyed online. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

Nationwide Presidential Poll Results – July 30, 2016

Contact: Brad Anderson, brad@rabaresearch.com; Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com

Hillary Bounces Back: In First Post-DNC Survey, Clinton Regains Commanding Lead Over Trump

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(DES MOINES) – Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has opened a significant lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, now leading him by 15 points, according to a new online nationwide survey conducted on Friday, July 29th by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

Among likely voters, Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%. Libertarian Gary Johnson now captures 7% of the vote, while Jill Stein sits at 2%.

A RABA Research poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed a tighter race, with Clinton at 39% and Trump at 34%. Johnson was at 8% in that survey, while Stein found 3% support.

“After closing the gap to single digits last week, Trump’s post-convention bounce has disappeared,” said RABA Research’s John Del Cecato, a Democratic partner with the firm. “While Trump continues to struggle to consolidate support within his own party, Clinton has a sizable lead among independents, and is even peeling off a small slice of Republican voters.”

When asked if the Democratic National Convention was a failure or success, 38% of respondents called the convention a success, while 23% dubbed it a failure. 38% of respondents said neither, or that they were not sure.

“Hillary Clinton enjoyed a bounce this week, but can she sustain it?” said Tim Albrecht, a Republican partner with RABA Research. “All of the speakers at her convention this week have day jobs and cannot devote all of their time helping to prop her up on the campaign trail. It remains to be seen if her support is fleeting, or if it is a forecast of things to come.”

This week’s poll caps a month of wild swings amongst the electorate. A July 12 RABA Research poll showed Clinton with a 12-point lead. In a post-RNC survey on July 23, Clinton lost ground among men and seniors. Now Clinton has opened a 7-point lead among men, and earns 50% support among women.  Clinton also saw seniors swing back her way, and now has a 16-point lead over Trump with those voters.

“Voters are unsettled and highly transient,” said Kim Alfano, Republican partner with RABA Research. “This race is far from determined and the presidency is up for grabs.”

The online poll was paid for by RABA Research and not by any candidate, committee or outside group.  The survey measured 956 voters and was conducted Friday, July 29, 2016. The results were weighted to ensure proportional response and the margin of error for the results is +/- 3.2%.

Virginia Presidential Poll Results – July 30, 2016

Contact: John Del Cecato, john@rabaresearch.com; Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com

Trump leads Clinton in Virginia
McDonnell legal challenge – round 2 – finds little support

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(DES MOINES) – Republican nominee Donald J. Trump holds a 4-point lead over Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton in the critical state of Virginia and just outside the margin of error, a new RABA Research poll shows.

Among the poll of 655 likely voters in Virginia, Trump holds a 46%-42% lead over Clinton, despite her pick of Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her vice presidential running mate.

Voters are split on Kaine, with 40% of respondents saying they are more likely to vote for Clinton based on the pick, versus 34% who are less likely to support her and 26% stating it makes no difference.

“This puts Virginia squarely into swing state territory,” said Tim Albrecht, a Republican partner at RABA Research. “While this poll was taken largely ahead of both Kaine’s and Clinton’s Democratic National Convention speeches, it demonstrates they cannot take Kaine’s home-state status for granted.”

The poll, which includes landlines and cell phone-only households, was conducted via IVR July 26-27 and has a margin of error of +/-3.8%.

The poll also questioned whether Virginians had the stomach for another legal challenge against former Gov. Bob and Maureen McDonnell. Respondents overwhelmingly rejected the idea, with 58% saying he should not be prosecuted again, and just 23% supporting further legal action. 19% were not sure.

“Virginia voters have spoken and believe it is time to move on,” said Albrecht. “Voters view the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn these convictions as the final word, and agree with current Gov. Terry McAuliffe that this case should not be prosecuted again.”

A full 73% of respondents would view another trial as a “waste” of taxpayer money while just 16% think it would be a “good use” of taxpayer dollars.

The poll was conducted by RABA Research and not by any candidate or committee.

Nationwide Presidential Poll Results – July 23, 2016

Contact: John Del Cecato, john@rabaresearch.com; David Kochel, david@rabaresearch.com

Trump gaining ground on Clinton in post-convention RABA Research poll
After trailing by 12 points just two weeks ago, Trump moves to 5 points of Clinton in first post-convention poll

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(DES MOINES) – Republican nominee Donald J. Trump significantly closed his gap with Hillary Clinton, cutting her lead from 12% to 5% in a new nationwide survey conducted on Friday, July 22 by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

Trump garnered 34% to Clinton’s 39% of likely voters who participated in the survey.  Libertarian Gary Johnson captured 8% of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 3%.

Trump’s showing represents a significant swing from a survey RABA Research conducted two week ago, with Clinton at 41% to Trump’s 29%.

“Trump’s chaotic convention provided positive movement in his direction, so it will be interesting to see what will likely be a tightly-scripted, message-driven convention will mean for Hillary Clinton,” said RABA Research partner John Del Cecato.

Male voters are largely responsible for Trump’s movement in the polls. RABA Research’s July 12th survey showed Trump with a 3-point deficit among men.  Since then, Trump has moved to a 9-point lead among male voters.

Seniors are also coming around to Trump’s message.  Clinton’s 22-point lead two weeks ago has shrunk to just 5 points in RABA’s latest survey.

“Hillary Clinton has consistently demonstrated a low ceiling, thanks in part to a general distrust of her among likely voters,” said RABA Research partner Kim Alfano, a Philadelphia-area Republican.  “Can she overcome her self-created trust deficit, or will she rise to the occasion when America watches the DNC in living rooms and on smartphones across the country?”

Views on the impact of the Republican convention itself were mixed.  37% of respondents considered it “a disaster,” while just 24% called it a “success.”  Women voters called the RNC a “disaster” instead of a “success” by a 3:1 margin.

Young voters remain a persistent problem for Trump.  His deficit among those aged 18-29 worsened by 13 points, perhaps owing in part to a convention to which young people were not moved.  A whopping 55% of voters in that age group called the convention a “disaster,” as opposed to just 13% calling it a “success.”

The online post-convention survey was paid for by RABA Research — and not by any candidate, committee, or outside group.  Its results have a margin of error of 3.3%, with a 95% confidence interval.

Nationwide Presidential Poll Results – July 12, 2016

Contact: David Kochel, david@rabaresearch.com; Brad Anderson, brad@rabaresearch.com

New poll finds Hillary Clinton +12 over Donald Trump
Trump struggles with Republicans
Candidate controversies cancel each other out?

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(DES MOINES) – Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over Republican Donald Trump in the latest nationwide survey conducted by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

Clinton’s support stands at 41% among likely voters, while Donald Trump has the support of 29%. The online poll was taken July 7-9 and has a margin of error of 3.5%.

The poll also found Libertarian Gary Johnson with 9% of support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered 3% of the vote.

“This 12-point deficit is bad news for Trump as he struggles to get above two-thirds support from his fellow Republicans,” said RABA Research Founder David Kochel, a Republican. “And with his hard support below 30%, Trump is the first presumptive nominee from either party to poll so low while heading into the national convention.”

While Trump’s struggles with his base, Clinton holds a statistically-significant lead among independents – signaling that Trump must walk a fine line between activating unenthused Republicans and wooing more moderate independent voters.

When it comes to recent controversies for each candidate, they appear to have canceled each other out.

40% of respondents say they are less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton based on FBI Director James Comey’s assertion that she was “extremely careless” in her handling of classified information.

Yet when asked about Trump’s infamous “Star of David” tweet with an image lifted from a white supremacist message board, 44% of respondents say they are less likely to support him.

“Hillary Clinton’s sizable lead shows that while the Comey statements turned off a segment of the electorate, Trump’s tweet had a similarly negative response,” said Brad Anderson, a Democratic partner at RABA Research. “The race is frozen, and Trump must hope for a convention thaw since nothing thus far has changed the trajectory of this race.”

Ohio Poll Results – June 30, 2016

Contact: John Del Cecato, john@rabaresearch.com; Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com

OHIO POLL: Clinton maintains slight edge over Trump, 41-38
Kasich finds support in non-endorsement
Muslim ban support lags

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(DES MOINES) – Hillary Clinton has a 41%-38% lead over Donald Trump in the pivotal swing state of Ohio, according to the latest poll of likely voters conducted by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

“Even after what was widely viewed as a turbulent month for Donald Trump, he is still within a margin of error striking distance to Clinton,” said Republican Tim Albrecht, founder and partner of RABA Research. “This state is up for grabs.”

The poll also found support for Gov. John Kasich’s non-endorsement of Trump by a margin of 48% to 30%, showing limited backlash as his state prepares to host the Republican National Convention in just over two weeks.

“Whether there are a number of reluctant Trump supporters, or Kasich is just that popular, either way he’s not taking a hit for not supporting the Republican nominee,” said Democrat Brad Anderson, a partner and founder of RABA Research.

Less popular, however, is Donald Trump’s support for a ban on Muslims entering the U.S.

When Ohio voters are asked, “Donald Trump has called for a ban on all Muslims entering the United States. Do you support this idea, or oppose it?” 47% of respondents oppose the proposal, while 36% support. 17% are not sure.

The poll, conducted June 22-28, has a margin of error of  +/-4%. It contains a mix of landline and cell phone-only households. The poll was commissioned and paid for by RABA Research and not by any candidate or outside groups.

Poll Measuring Enthusiasm for Potential Vice Presidential Picks – June 29, 2016

Contact: Brad Anderson, brad@rabaresearch.com; Tim Albrecht, tim@rabaresearch.com

New poll finds Warren, Sanders would bring in money for Clinton while Trump VP shortlist struggles to gain traction

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(DES MOINES) – A new poll conducted by RABA Research shows that 30% of respondents would open their wallets were Hillary Clinton to pick Elizabeth Warren as her running mate, while 35% would do so were she to tag Bernie Sanders.

On the Republican side, Dr. Ben Carson leads with 13%, followed closely by House Speaker Paul Ryan at 12%.  Gov. John Kasich was the only other option in double digits, at 10%.

The poll asked respondents if they would be willing to donate $5 or more to either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump if they chose from a list of pre-selected vice presidential prospects. The findings are the result 626 respondents to an online poll conducted June 27. Only those respondents open to donating to either were included in the poll.

“This response indicates Hillary Clinton could dramatically increase her current fundraising advantage over Donald Trump were she to pick Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren,” said Brad Anderson, partner at RABA Research. “As for Trump, voters appear unenthused when presented with vice presidential prospects, meaning he might have to reach far outside the box to harness online donor enthusiasm.”

The results were as follows:

Hillary Clinton has not yet selected her vice presidential running mate. If one of the following people were chosen, would you consider donating $5 or more to the Clinton campaign? (Check all that apply)

Senator Bernie Sanders 35%
Senator Elizabeth Warren 30%
Senator Cory Booker 16%
Housing Secretary Julian Castro 14%
Senator Sherrod Brown 11%
Senator Tim Kaine 10%
Labor Secretary Tom Perez 9%
Congressman Xavier Becerra 6%
None of these 48%

Donald Trump has not yet selected his vice presidential running mate. If one of the following people were chosen, would you consider donating $5 or more to the Trump campaign? (Check all that apply)

Dr. Ben Carson 13%
House Speaker Paul Ryan 12%
Governor John Kasich 10%
Fmr House Speaker Newt Gingrich 9%
Former Governor Sarah Palin 8%
Governor Chris Christie 7%
Governor Susana Martinez 5%
Senator Jeff Sessions 3%
Senator Joni Ernst 2%
Senator John Thune 2%
None of these 66%

North Carolina Poll Results – May 2, 2016

Contact: Brad Anderson (515) 953-9414

NEW RABA POLL: NC Voters Disapprove of HB2 and Want Law Repealed
Cooper, Stein Lead in Governor and Attorney General Race

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(Des Moines) – Red America, Blue America (RABA) Research, a bipartisan polling firm with principals based in New York, Des Moines and Washington, DC, is out with a new poll showing North Carolina voters disapprove of the state’s new HB2, anti-transgender law and want the law repealed.

The poll, conducted April 27-28, surveyed 688 North Carolina voters on landline and mobile phones.  The margin of error is +/-3.7%

The new RABA poll shows 50% of registered North Carolina voters disapprove of HB2, while 35% approve of the law and 16% are undecided. Our Research also shows 36% of Republican voters are less likely support HB2 when they heard NASCAR had formally come out in opposition of the law, while 10% were more likely to support the law and it made no difference to 54% of Republican voters.

The new law appears to be having a negative impact on Republican Pat McCrory’s re-election campaign as
well.  When asked, “do you approve or disapprove of how Governor Pat McCrory has handled HB2,” 36% of voters approve while 49% disapprove.  In a head-to-head matchup with Democrat Roy Cooper and Libertarian Lon Cecil, McCrory is trailing Cooper 41% to 36% with Cecil at 6% and 17% of voters undecided.

In addition to the Governor’s race, RABA polled the NC Attorney General Race, which has been in the news lately following comments by Republican Attorney General Candidate, Sen. Buck Newton, who called on supporters at a rally to help him “keep our state straight.”  In the race for Attorney General, the head-to-head RABA poll showed Democrat Sen. Josh Stein leading Sen. Buck Newton 40% to 33%, with 27% undecided.

“With voters clearly opposing the new anti-transgender law, and Democrats in both the Governor and Attorney General races showing leads outside the margin of error, it is a safe bet to say the new HB2 legislation has done the Republican party no favors in North Carolina,” said Brad Anderson, a RABA Research founder and principal.  “While there does appear to be a partisan split on the law, the Democratic opposition is much stronger than the Republican support for HB2.  However, the most striking number is the 33% – 52% approve, disapprove difference with Independent voters. Independent voters oppose the law just as strongly as Republicans support it, which could be a problem for Republicans in November.”

This poll was paid for by RABA Research and not by any candidate or outside group.

Missouri Poll Results – March 11, 2016

Contact: Tim Albrecht (515) 491-2722

TIGHTENING RACE IN MISSOURI: Clinton leads Sanders 44%-40% in new RABA Research poll

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(DES MOINES) – Red America, Blue America (RABA) Research, a bipartisan polling firm with principals based in New York, Des Moines, and Washington, DC, is out with a new poll showing Hillary Clinton with a narrow, 44% – 40% lead over Bernie Sanders in Missouri ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

The poll, conducted March 8-10, surveyed 670 Missouri Democratic primary voters on landline and mobile phones. The margin of error is +/- 4%.

“This race is going to come down to who has the momentum and organization,” said John Del Cecato, a RABA Research founder and principal. “After Sanders’ surprise win in Michigan, he is showing a lot of life in his campaign and the voters of Missouri aren’t ready to give up on him yet.”

“We believe this race is too close to call, with a slight edge to Clinton,” said Tim Albrecht, a RABA Research founder and principal. “A Sanders win would still be considered an upset, but at this point the result Tuesday night will be close no matter who pulls off the win.”

In addition to the head-to-head matchup, our research shows Clinton with a 48% – 37% lead over Sanders with African-American voters, and Sanders with a 55% – 33% lead over voters 18-35 years old.

This poll was paid for by RABA Research and not by any candidate or outside group.